The recent evolution of the Civil War in Myanmar: a conflict without end? The civil war in Myanmar, which has torn the country apart between the military government and ethnic and opposition forces, is undergoing a critical phase, marked by escalating violence and an increasingly worsening humanitarian crisis. The situation, which has been spiraling since the February 2021 coup, shows alarming signs of an intractable conflict that seems far from resolution.
The roots of violence: a coup that shook the Country
The conflict in Myanmar has deep-rooted causes, linked to decades of ethnic, political, and social tensions. However, the recent crisis directly stems from the military coup of February 2021, which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Since then, resistance to the military junta has taken several forms, including the rise of armed opposition groups such as the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), which have gained ground in numerous areas of the country. The military regime’s response has been brutal: airstrikes, summary executions, and the use of chemical weapons, alongside indiscriminate arrests and torture.
Escalation of violence: a War becoming more widespread
In recent months, the conflict has seen a worrying escalation. Since mid-2024, military forces have intensified operations against areas controlled by ethnic groups such as the Karen, Kachin, and Chin, with targeted attacks and offensives devastating entire villages. At the same time, the resistance has strengthened its capacity to strike, carrying out more coordinated attacks on government troops. The result is a conflict spreading across the entire territory, involving not only major cities but also rural areas, where the civilian population is the primary victim.
The Humanitarian Crisis: Millions of displaced people and a population on its knees
One of the most devastating effects of this civil war is the humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people. More than 1.5 million refugees have been forced to flee their homes, many living in makeshift camps along the borders with Thailand and other neighboring countries. Living conditions are dire, with shortages of food, clean water, and access to basic healthcare services. The UN and other international organizations have repeatedly condemned attacks on hospitals and civilian infrastructure, which have made it even more difficult to provide assistance to those in need.
The International Response: Words and Little Action
While the international community has condemned the coup and human rights violations, concrete actions have been limited. Economic sanctions imposed on the junta have not had a significant impact on the government, which continues to receive support from China and Russia, further complicating diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Specifically, UN resolutions are often blocked by the veto of these two permanent members of the Security Council, making it difficult to implement a coherent and effective response.
Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries, through the ASEAN, have attempted mediation efforts without success, while the West has often taken contradictory positions, with some states appearing more concerned about safeguarding their economic interests than pushing for a peaceful resolution.
An Uncertain Future and a conflict without an end in sight
The civil war in Myanmar shows no signs of a quick resolution. The intensification of violence, the failure of diplomatic efforts, and the increasingly desperate condition of the population raise troubling questions about the country’s future. Without decisive international intervention and more effective mediation, the situation could turn into a prolonged conflict that would not only devastate Myanmar further but also destabilize the entire Southeast Asian region.
The only hope for a resolution lies in a change of strategy at the international level, involving stronger cooperation among global powers and real pressure on the military junta to push for dialogue and an end to the violence. However, until then, the suffering of the Burmese people continues to rise, and the prospects for lasting peace seem increasingly distant.
