The Events that have taken place in Syria since November 30th have proven to be both stunning and rapid paced and have the potential to change the Political landscape of the Middle East.
The whirlwind events began when Hayat Tahir Al Sham (HTS) a Sunni Militant Group which is considered to be well armed and a proxy of Turkey and their allies captured the City of Aleppo along with a sizable quantity of arms from Syrian Government Forces. Subsequently the HTS and its allies have marched southward towards the city of Homs.
Also in a move that is not considered to be a joint operation other opposition groups based in the Southern Part of Syria and who receive support from Jordan launched a series of attacks in both the Daraa and the As-Suwayda Governates. These forces are now approaching the Capital of Damascus from the South.
Prior to this capture the fighting in the Northwestern party of Syria (Idlib area) was considered to be a low intensity conflict with not much activity there nor was there any similar actions along the Southern Border. So what happened to encourage these forces to take the initiative and launch operations against the Assad regime? Better question is why has the Syrian Army retreated at such a pace that these campaigns are on the verge of being considered to be a rout?
By all accounts this has been a war of attrition. The militias have been able to rearm and reequip at a rate faster than the Syrian Government. That is one factor that has to be considered. Another factor is that President Assad has outsourced too much of his defense to outside partners and that is coming back to haunt him.
Two of his key allies have been Iran and the Lebanese Militia Hezbollah. This year both entities have had skirmishes with the State of Israel. Neither party has emerged from the series of tit for tat intact with Israel. Iran has had at least one strike and in a campaign that has to be a direct result of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 Hezbollah has had their senior leadership killed as a result of Israeli Airstrikes.
However another action taken by Israel appears to have decimated some of the Shia Leadership in Syria and the effects of that are now visible. On September 17th reports emerged of a series of explosions throughout Lebanon and Syria of senior Hezbollah commanders being killed or seriously wounded as the pagers that they used for communications detonated. When this took place Israel was lauded for a simple operation that created such a yield. One can ask if whether or not the pager operation had inflicted serious damage to the senior Syrian Leadership.
Another interesting aspect is the role of Russia in this conflict. There have been reports of Russian airstrikes in both the Aleppo and Homs regions other than that there has not been any major role for the Russians.One could ask if the current campaign in Ukraine is affecting operations in Syria? Specifically which is the main priority for the Kremlin right now, the Special Military Operation in Ukraine? Or propping up their ally. President Assad did travel to Moscow earlier in the week to seek support against the double movements. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts as well to see how to bring this phase of the conflict to an end.
Some feel that the capture of Damascus could be an endgame for Syria. However what happens next to Syria may depend on which group the HTS or the Southern Syrians enter Damascus first. What will happen to the SDF region will be a major question to be determined
