Tensions in the Horn of Africa.
The elements are in place for another election that may present a controversial and chaotic results within the next fortnight. It appears that this is a single issue poll that could further inflame tensions.
This statement is not about the Presidential Polls that will take place in the United States. The polls that are in question are scheduled for November 13th. The location where these polls will take place are in Somaliland. These polls present a few interesting challenges that need to be addressed.
The challenges are linked. Both present a challenge to what some feel is the integrity of the Somali State.
First is whether or not Somaliland is an independent state. For two decades there were chaos and instability after the collapse of the Siad Barre regime led to two decades of clan warfare that ended a little more than a decade ago.
Supporters of having one functioning central Somali Government are keen to have that authority exert control over the whole nation. The advocates for Somaliland Independence state that their region is a de facto Independent State that needs to be recegonized by the International Community as an Independent State. At this time that status has not been achieved. However earlier this year an event occurred that has the potential of granting that dream.
On January 1, 2024 it was announced that the Somaliland Government had signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Ethiopia. The terms of the MOU were an earthquake in the Horn. It proposed that Ethiopia would be given permission to use the port of Berbera in exchange for Addis Ababa recgonizing the Independence of Somaliland. Although not connected to the Somaliland Vote the actions of the Houthis in the Red Sea supporting Hamas are another indicator of the potential impact that this MOU will have on the Region.
As a result the Somali Government has spent most of the year with two objectives. They are to maintain the integrity of Somalia and to find a means to derail the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland. So far the efforts for maintaining the unity of Somalia have been able to maintain the status quo. As for derailing the MOU the Mogadishu authorities have decided to isolate Ethiopia by establishing or advancing relationships.
One way that was accomplished by determining which regional actors have issues with Ethiopia? The first country that lands in that criteria is Egypt. Over the last few years the two powers have been at odds over the GERD Dam project on the Ethiopian branch of the Nile River. Earlier this year Cairo did sign a Defense pact with Mogadishu. Will the situation actually lead to conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia? Not directly at first. However is there is an instance where there is an incident between Somaliland and Somalia itself could that be a trigger to conflict?
Another country that has recently decided to openly support Mogadishu is Eritrea. This country which has the reputation of being the Pariah in the region has a checkered history with Ethiopia. It won independence from Ethiopia after a decades long insurgency back in the 1990s. Eritrean Troops did enter Ethiopia to assist the Government during the Tigray War as well. It should be noted that Asmara also has good ties with Mogadishu as well. For several years now Somali troops have undergone training in Eritera. The pieces are in place for an interesting scenario.
So what happens if Somaliland keeps on the path that could lead to the implementation of the MOU and potentially the independence of the region? That is a great question. There are several scenarios that may play out. Could Egypt or even Eritrea openly support the insurgents? In the case of Eritrea that would be a case of switching sides.
Ethiopian Troops have played a role in the restoration of central government in Somalia. Already the Somali Government has stated that the Ethiopian Military would not be welcome in any further peacekeeping mission in Somalia. That could present another flashpoint that will inflame tensions.
Already before the elections the Somali Government has declared the # 2 person at the Ethiopian Embassy as Persona Non Grata demanding that he leave the country with a 72 hour deadline. This appears to be the first move up the ladder of escalation. The next few weeks before the elections are going to be critical.
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