Strategic and Intelligence Analysis: Perspectives for Latin America in 2025
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a critical period for Latin America, marked by a series of political, economic, and social transformations that will influence the stability and development of the region. The interaction between internal politics, the external influence of powers like the United States and China, and socioeconomic factors such as migration and organized crime, including groups like El Tren de Aragua, will define the course of Latin American countries.
National elections in countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia will create an environment of political uncertainty. The possibility of regime changes could alter diplomatic and economic relations, especially with the United States and China. The consolidation of leftist regimes, like those in Cuba and Venezuela, and the emergence of governments more aligned with anti-American ideologies in other countries could generate internal and external tensions, affecting governability.
The Trump administration will focus on strengthening border security and addressing the migration crisis from countries like Venezuela and Cuba. This will involve a more aggressive approach toward regimes considered adversarial and the implementation of economic sanctions. The United States will seek to reaffirm its economic influence through trade agreements and strategic partnerships, particularly in sectors like energy and infrastructure. Washington will intensify its efforts to limit the expansion of Chinese influence in the region.
China is expected to continue increasing its investments in infrastructure, technology, and natural resources in Latin America, consolidating its role as a key trading partner. Beijing will use its diplomacy to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relations, leveraging institutions like CELAC to gain political support and counteract U.S. influence.
Russia will seek to strengthen its ties with leftist and authoritarian governments, like those in Venezuela and Nicaragua, offering military and economic support. In a context of instability, Moscow could intervene in regional conflicts to expand its influence and counter the presence of the United States.
Iran will seek to strengthen its relations with anti-American regimes in the region, offering ideological and military support. This could include cooperation on security and defense issues, especially in countries with leftist governments.
The Cuban regime will continue to seek support from allies like Russia and China to counter U.S. sanctions and pressures. The economic crisis in Cuba will likely drive an increase in migration to the United States, which could further destabilize bilateral relations.
Mass migration from Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti is expected to continue, exacerbated by unstable political and economic conditions. This will create additional pressures on receiving countries, especially Colombia and other South American nations. Organized crime and violence will remain central concerns. The expansion of criminal networks, like El Tren de Aragua, and drug trafficking will affect public safety and trust in institutions, complicating efforts to improve governance.
Child recruitment as cannon fodder for armed groups will continue to be a problem if permissive governments in the region keep ignoring these crimes. Children, victims of poverty and violence, are exploited by criminal organizations, perpetuating a cycle of violence and destabilization.
The border is not only used by Latin Americans trying to reach the north; it is also a transit point for thousands of people from around the world, including individuals seeking a better future, common criminals, terrorists, and other actors who hate the United States. This situation poses significant challenges for security and immigration policy in the region.
The indiscriminate trafficking of minerals and precious stones has also increased, fueling illegal economies and generating social and environmental conflicts. Moreover, the trafficking of influence to generate multimillion-dollar contracts that never materialize, leaving money to disappear without accountability, is a common practice. What all these phenomena have in common is the lack of consequences; justice has lost its place and is often applied only to the most vulnerable, while others are turned into peace brokers and re-elected or rewarded with government positions as mayors, governors, deputies, congressmen, senators, or even presidents.
Human rights violations will remain an alarming reality in the region, with cases of torture, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and state terrorism. Many of these acts are perpetrated by government actors who are actually criminals disguised as heads of state. Impunity and the lack of separation of powers further exacerbate this situation, allowing these violations to continue unchecked.
The digital revolution will present both opportunities and risks. While technology can facilitate economic growth, it can also be used by non-state actors to increase criminality and disinformation, further weakening trust in democratic institutions.
Organized crime in Latin America will continue to be a significant challenge, with an increase in violence and drug trafficking, especially in the production of cocaine and methamphetamines. Institutional and political corruption, endemic in many countries, will undermine citizens’ trust and perpetuate impunity. At the same time, the uncontrolled looting of natural resources and the wealth of government coffers is being plundered. Illegal mining, fuel theft, deforestation, wildlife trafficking, and indiscriminate logging will generate social conflicts and environmental damage, affecting biodiversity and local communities.
Socialist ideology and communism only serve to turn the ruling class into magnates while the people suffer unimaginable hardships. These models bring misery, ignorance, destroy economies, and foster destabilization in the region. Notable examples of this include Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, North Korea, and even the old Soviet Union. These destructive government models have never worked and have left a legacy of suffering and poverty.
The United States cannot afford to turn a blind eye and continue leaving its Latin American neighbors in abandonment. A more proactive policy and diplomacy are needed, as we cannot allow countries like China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba to continue forging the destruction of our neighboring countries, gaining strength just a few steps from our borders. It is important to remember that while we sleep, they work and plan the destruction of our way of life and endanger our national security.
The new administration of President Trump must take a more proactive role with the Colombian government and restore monitoring of coca and poppy crops and their eradication, seeking a strategy to disrupt the thousands of hectares of these crops that have generated thousands of tons annually of cocaine and heroin. President Petro’s government has allowed Colombia’s national territory to become the country with the highest levels of cocaine production in the world, even surpassing the levels when the major cartels of Medellín, Cali, and El Norte del Valle operated. This is only possible if the national government is directly allowing this to happen.
The outlook for 2025 in Latin America is complex and challenging. The interconnection between internal politics, the external influence of global powers, and issues like organized crime, drug trafficking, corruption, looting of natural resources, the expansion of socialism, and the activity of armed groups outside the law will generate a cycle of instability that will affect the development and well-being of the region. The ability of governments to implement comprehensive strategies that address these challenges in a coordinated manner will be crucial to promote a safer and more sustainable future for their citizens.
By William Acosta, NYPD (Ret) and Jesús Daniel Romero, US (Ret)
Credits
El Nacional, ABC Color, La Prensa, The New York Times, Venezuela Analysis, BBC Mundo, El País, Reuters.
