Once again South Sudan is in the midst of a political crisis. Considering who the actors who are involved in the situation, the situation is no longer tragic but has shafted into the realm of being comic or sublime.
The two individuals who are at the center of this row are President Salva Kirr and his political rival and First Vice President Riek Machar. Their rivalry actually dates back to the independence war against Sudan that ended in 2011. The end of that conflict did not resolve the issues between the two gentlemen. A case could be made that independence has inflamed the tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar.
The first documented falling out between the leaders took place in 2013. The catalyst for the falling out was that President Kiir accused his rival of planning to initiate a coupagainst him. This move took place shortly after Mr. Machar announced plans to challenge President Kiir as a party leader before the 2015 elections. The tensions that arose from being rivals in the field against Sudan for decades appears to have embittered these two men when they are asked to lead the country.
Despite their animosity there have been several attempts to foster a dialogue between these two leaders. Most of these efforts have failed after a period of high optimism. One such occasion was the accord signed in September 2018. This agreement had two phases. Phase I was to have an eight month transition period that would have lead to a National Unity Government that would rule for three years.. Phase II would have had elections that would take place sixty days before the mandate for the transition expired.
Signing the deal was one hurdle, implementing the deal would itself be quite a challenge. The unity Government did not officially assume responsibilities until Feburary 2020. This part should be considered to be a success for South Sudan as it appeared to move towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict. However during its tenure the current unity government has been plagued by infighting, corruption and a unwieldy arrangement which has five vice-presidents. It appears that the area of contention is the electoral process.
Elections were scheduled to be held in December 2024 which was ninety days after the expiration of the 2018 accord, but were postponed for two years and will now be held in December 2026. The reasons that have been given for the delay are threefold. First the claim is that a nationwide census needs to be taken, Secondly a new constitution needs to be written and finally political parties need to be vetted.
There is one glaring statistic that the government is overlooking. A recent poll revealed that 71 percent of the South Sudanese Population were in favor of having elections even if there was a risk of political violence. The people of South Sudan are begging for change however it appeaers that there are two individuals who are refusing to relinquish their hold on power.
In recent days President Kiir has placed his nemesis Mr. Machar under house arrest. Already there have been concerns regarding how this will impact the fragile peace process within South Sudan. It is clear that this may impact the process. This is also a political move designed to remove an adversary of President Kiir from the scene before elections are even held. There have been no direct clashes between supporters of either candidate at this time. The longer that there is no resolution to this crisis the more likely that conflict will actually erupt and that could not only delay the December 2026 elections but also could reduce their importance in the eyes of some.
