Nigeria at Risk of Disintegration by Artificial Foodstuff Scarcities
Nigeria is tottering under galloping inflation blamed chiefly on floating of the Naira in the foreign exchange market and removal of price subsidies on petroleum products. Although prices expectedly rose when petroleum product subsidies were removed, galloping inflation actually set in only after Nigeria penalized Niger Republic by border closure for a military coup in that country – a punitive step that turned out mutually destructive or an ill-wind that blew neither of the two countries any good.
Much as Niger Republic suffered loss of some national income in the early days of the border closure, prices of some foodstuff soared in Nigeria and stabilized only after smugglers found a way around the official restriction on movement between the two countries. On this, President Tinubu of Nigeria would later save face by admitting that the border blockade was relaxed on purpose. But the damage had been done.
The border closure was providential and the multiplier consequences insightful for some Nigerian politicians who had earlier threatened to weaponize foodstuff supplies for political advantage. This is no empty boast in Nigeria where recently, a private bank account holding N3 billion was traced to the immediate past Aviation Minister. The apparently looted public fund is just a tiny fraction of the estimated trillions authoritatively reported as unaccounted for by Buhàri’s regime.
Just a minuscule of that humongous loot in private hands is more than adequate to buy up and hoard or destroy foodstuff as a strategy for annoying a populace to trigger a violent change of government. Its parallel is unrestrained terrorism financing which is making non-state actors better armed than security agents in Nigeria. Yet another parallel is using ill-gotten wealth to sabotage the foreign exchange market by out-bidding genuine patrons to starve the country’s import dependent economy to death.
Those are some of the consequences of massive corrupt enrichment of a few because a president got clannish by filling key positions with only his kinsmen whose supervision, kindred spirit inhibited. Neither is their past public life easy to probe by another president of a different tribe without drawing an ethnic battleline – a dilema facing President Tinubu. Calling members of his predecessor’s regime to give account of their public stewardship is like drawing an inter-tribal battleline and that is threatening the Tinubu presidency. Why not!
Having “won” the 2023 presidential election without any rationale given his political party’s woeful performance for eight consecutive years, President Tinubu’s supposed benefactors expected him to share power as well as gloss over their sinful past. But thus far, his attitude has been that of a winner takes all. Like his predecessor, he is appointing only his kinsmen and acquaintances into choice positions. Again, instead of glossing over the corrupt past of fellow party members who held public offices, he is probing them.
That might confirm that President Tinubu is hard pressed to recover part of looted public funds as the only way to get his own regime off the ground with his predecessor having reportedly exhausted every borrowing window and bequeathed a historic N77 trillion debt with no accruals to offset it. But no matter the imperative, President Tinubu’s probe and some of his other policies are not going down well with his supposed political benefactors who with looted trillions in their private vaults, could make the country ungovernable – a nightmare similarly wrestled in the past by his southern Nigerian predecessors. Only that this time, the strategy is different although the purpose remains the same – “whip the president to toll our line or burn down the country”. Sharia was used to confront President Obasanjo while President Jonathan contended with imported foreigners both as terrorists and voters.
But while those were bare-faced, the strategy deployed this time against President Tinubu is subtle with a lot of room for deniability. It is as simple as: “with your stolen trillions, stock and hoard or destroy foodstuff until acute artificial food scarcities incite the populace for a violent change of government.” And sadly, the strategy appears to be working as foodstuff scarcity protests have been reported in some parts of Nigeria. Also, according to the Sultan of Sokoto, no one could continually restrain the protests from going nationwide.
However, one is not altogether ruling out other negative factors on the worsening foodstuff scarcities in Nigeria. But to limit the reasons to removal of price subsidies on petroleum products and rising Dollar/Naira exchange rate, is narrow mindedness. Not only that most of Nigerian staple food items are not imported with the US dollar, agricultural production is not mechanized in Nigeria and Niger Republic as to require importation of machinery with hard currency. Neither did either country or their West African region report poor harvests in 2023.
Also, prices of petroleum products have risen neither significantly nor steadily beyond their post-subsidy removal levels. On any argument that apart from agricultural products, prices of other goods and services are rising, the drivers are rising food prices. It stands to reason that where politicians turned economic saboteurs are costing you more on food, you must keep increasing prices of your own goods or services to be able to buy food.
Therefore, President Tinubu’s political foes should stop using their ill-gotten wealth to disrupt market forces in Nigeria as none might survive the multiplier and ultimate consequences. On his part, the president should remember that in an earlier write-up: “Niger Republic and Other Booby Traps before President Tinubu”, I did counsel:
“Much as President Tinubu should exercise discretion in handling the various volatile booby traps, innocent Nigerian masses should not be taxed to atone the sins of sacred cows who should be held to account like President Buhari fearlessly set out in 2015. Otherwise, slamming multiple taxes on the masses who have been victimized since the past eight years, could backfire and ultimately detrimental to national security.
In fact, Nigeria like an accident victim with bleeding multiple injuries needs outward and not inward look for blood donation and transfusion to survive. And the apt economic therapies would be diversification of the economy and creating of an enabling environment for industry and commerce to thrive. Only those two economic thrusts would grow and strengthen the Nigerian economy and not tax piles of the worthless free-falling Naira due to no productivity to shore up its value.”
