China’s upcoming dam in Tibet endangers more than diplomatic relations with India
Introduction
China’s aggressive hydropower expansion in Tibet has come under intense scrutiny following a recent 7.1-magnitude earthquake (as per the US Geological Survey) that struck the region on 7th January 2025.
Initially, the official Chinese position was that the earthquake had not caused any damage to its dams. However, it was later forced to backtrack and admit that at least five dams had developed significant issues, including cracks and severe structural damage. At the earthquake’s epicentre in Tingri County, one dam’s walls started to tilt to such an extent that 1,500 people from six villages had to be evacuated to higher ground. Intrinsic to Chinese culture and society is the need to avoid ‘loss of face’. Consequently, Beijing rarely takes responsibility for any adverse impact and damage publicly and officially.
Tibet’s Geographical/Environmental Challenges
The Tibetan Plateau provides freshwater resources to over two billion people: which is 30 per cent of the world population. Hence, it is also known as the ‘Third Pole’ as it hosts the largest ice mass outside of Antarctic, the Arctic and other polar regions. In the past six decades, the Plateau’s temperature has increased at more than 0.3ºC per decade, which is much higher than the global average.
The Tibetan Plateau is especially susceptible to seismic activity as it is situated on a geological fault line at the intersection of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Concerns about the ecological deterioration and community relocation currently plaguing Tibet are increasing as officials attempt to repair the harm. Some reports place the region’s hydropower power potential at a gigantic 200 gigawatts (GW). This is just one key reason why China disregards Tibet’s susceptibility to seismic activity, ecological deterioration and community relocation.
Given Beijing’s rapid development and lack of commensurate consideration for geological dangers in Tibet, there have always been major concerns regarding the viability and safety of the region’s ongoing hydroelectric projects.
Chinese Hydropower Development in Tibet
Status of hydropower dams in Tibet. | International Campaign for Tibet
The possible risks of building dams in these delicate places are further demonstrated by historical antecedents, such as the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, which some scientists have connected to dam operations.
Construction of the Kamtok (Gangtuo) hydroelectric power plant by Huadian Jinsha River Upstream Hydropower Development Company Limited – a subsidiary of the state-owned China Huadian Corporation Limited – is certain to forcefully displace residents living along the Drichu river (Jinsha), also destroying significant religious and cultural sites along with irreversible environmental damage to the local ecosystem. Completion of this dam will also submerge at least six monasteries (Wontoe, Yena, Khardo, Rabten and Gonsar) and two villages in Eastern Tibet’s Dege County. There is also likely to be irreversible and damaging environmental impacts to the Third Pole and all its natural resources.
Strategic experts believe any dam construction is extremely risky due to the region’s geography and construction and operationalisation of a dam: a geological fault line where the Indian and Eurasian Plates collide and the Zipingpu Dam potentially causing and/or exacerbating the adverse impact of a major earthquake on the Tibetan Plateau’s eastern rim, killing 87,000 people in 2008.
The World’s Largest Dam
Just weeks before the earthquake in December 2024, China announced the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam in a project estimated to cost $137 billion and generate 60 GW of power. This ambitious project has raised serious concerns among environmentalists and regional experts regarding its feasibility and safety in a seismically-active area.
A disregard for both seismic hazards and ecological repercussions is demonstrated by the choice to move forward with such extensive dam-building in a such an earthquake-prone area. Beijing remains firm in its commitment to hydropower expansion (with minimal environmental concerns) despite Tibet’s geographical/environmental challenges, China’s hydropower development in Tibet and the plethora of risks with the construction and operationalisation of the dam.
New Delhi’s Response
Unveiled in March 2021, the National People’s Congress (Chinese Parliament) formally approved the construction of the dam, with the announcement of the highway leading to the dam coming the following month in April. In June 2021, Beijing opened the rail line to the military town near the site of the dam, and the next month, Xi Jinping initiated his Tibet tour from this very town. This demonstrates China’s composite planning efforts: developmental, logistical, political and strategic.
The pace at which dams are being built today due to advances in engineering has disastrous effects on downstream countries. Millions of residents living along the rivers are at serious risk of severe flooding brought on by dam failures or poor management. While lower riparian states are almost always at a disadvantage compared to those in the upper regions, it does not mean that steps cannot be taken to minimise the impact between both.
New Delhi must build capabilities and capacities in the form of upgraded satellites to monitor the flow of water, assess flood risk and forecasting. With Beijing having signed more than 50 international conventions on environmental protection, India also needs to highlight the risk Chinese projects pose to the biosphere.
Conclusion
Despite the alarming developments following the recent earthquake in Tibet, China remains stubbornly undeterred in its commitment to hydropower expansion. The potential impact on local ecosystems and communities, combined with the increased risks associated with the construction of such a massive infrastructure project in a seismically-active region, demonstrates an urgent need for a critical reassessment of China’s hydropower strategy not just in Tibet but also other geographically-sensitive regions.
This is only the first step, and perhaps the easiest. Tougher steps to follow include a reassessment of the project, conducting a peer-reviewed independent environmental feasibility study and the political will to implement the recommendations of the reassessment. While all states act in their strategic interests, the requirements of the impacted communities and the environment also needs to be considered.
Finally, this issue is not just about China’s treatment of Tibet or its engagement with a neighbouring country but has a far larger impact on the planet, both diplomatically and environmentally: it is complicating the India-China relationship while simultaneously having the capability to really throw rainfall patterns in Asia into disarray. The yet-to-be-named dam is, therefore, not just a diplomatic but an ecological issue.
