Ribal al Assad, founder and director of the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria (ODFS), does not believe that the group currently holding power in Syria is trustworthy enough to be received in Europe (and in Italy) as a credible interlocutor. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani flew to Brussels for the donors’ conference. Today, he will be welcomed at the Farnesina, where he will meet with the Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani. Ribal al Assad is the cousin of the deposed dictator Bashar, from whom he distanced himself early on, starting his activism for democracy, freedom, and interreligious dialogue. Now, speaking with Ofcs Report, he expresses serious doubts about the possibility of a government composed of former jihadists gaining international recognition and governing Syria. “Al-Jolani’s government is taking steps in international relations. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani flew to Brussels to attend the donors’ conference and was later received in Italy by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. What do you think about the European Union’s opening towards Damascus’ new government? The European Union’s embrace of HTS is not just a mistake, it is an outrage. HTS, also known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, is a terrorist organization listed globally as such. It has an estimated 20,000 foreign jihadi terrorists among its ranks and, alongside the previous regime, is responsible for over one million deaths, one million injured, over six million refugees, eight million internally displaced people, the destruction of 60% of Syria’s infrastructure, and the use of chemical weapons against civilians. HTS has committed countless atrocities, including sectarian massacres, public executions such as beheadings, stonings, and crucifixions, slavery and forced underage marriages, Jihad al-Nikah, where women were trafficked to serve jihadists, mass abductions, torture, and chemical weapons attacks, the beheading of Lebanese Shia soldiers, the sale of Druze women as slaves in Idlib, the kidnapping of nuns in Maaloula, and the massacres of hundreds of Syrian Kurds in Kobani. These crimes mirror those committed by ISIS. So, if the US, the EU and other countries sanctioned the previous Syrian regime for its atrocities, then why is the EU now lifting sanctions and rewarding HTS, an Islamist extremist terrorist regime that has committed just as many crimes, if not more? The justification for lifting sanctions was that if HTS committed further atrocities, sanctions could be reinstated. But HTS never stopped its killings, never stopped its atrocities, and never stopped its massacres, yet instead of reinstating sanctions, the EU invited them to a donors’ conference, effectively rewarding them.
Asaad al-Shaibani, the so-called “Foreign Minister” of HTS, is not a diplomat, he is a terrorist just like his boss Al-Jolani, in suit. He is one of the co-founders of Al-Nusra Front, which is Al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria before rebranding itself as HTS. So how is it that European governments refuse to meet or recognize Hamas leaders, Al-Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, or ISIS’s Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, yet now they are shaking hands with an Islamist terrorist government that follows the exact same perverted ideology as Al-Qaeda and ISIS?
HTS is not a government, it is an Islamist extremist terrorist regime that has not changed its ideology, only its strategy. Some European officials falsely believe that HTS can be “moderated” and used as a counterweight to Iranian influence in Syria. This is a catastrophic miscalculation.
HTS, like its parent organization Al-Qaeda, will eventually turn against Europe, just as Al-Qaeda did back when it was in Afghanistan. The difference now? HTS is not in Afghanistan, it is on the Mediterranean. They are only a couple of hours by boat from Cyprus, Greece, and the rest of Europe.
HTS has been integrating thousands of foreign jihadists into its ranks, distributing Syrian passports and identity documents printed in Turkey, and appointing foreign jihadists to key military and security positions. The head of the Republican Guard is Jordanian, the head of security in Damascus is Turkish, the head of security in Homs is Lebanese, and other senior commanders include Uyghur Chinese, Albanians, and Uzbeks. This is not a Syrian government; this is a foreign jihadist regime operating on Syrian soil.
And soon they will begin inviting tens of thousands of not hundreds of thousands of foreign jihadis from all over the world to join their forces.
The EU should be reinstating sanctions on HTS, treating them as the terrorist organization they are, and not giving them diplomatic legitimacy and funding their expansion”.
Massacres and Violence: What’s Happening in Syria? Is This a Settling of Scores or Actual Ethnic Cleansing?
“What is happening in Syria today could be viewed as a settling of scores. The regime’s high-ranking officials and officers, around 3,000 of them, were taken by the Russians to Moscow and Benghazi after Russia, Turkey, and Iran agreed that it was time for Bashar al-Assad to leave. This decision was made just before the Biden administration, under lobbying from certain GCC countries, was set to lift sanctions on the Syrian regime on December 20th, with a promise of $200 billion in reconstruction aid. That financial support would have enabled the regime to officially expel Iran from Syria and free itself from Russian dominance.
What we are witnessing now is a full-scale religious and sectarian cleansing. The new Islamist extremist regime is led by HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) and its self-proclaimed president, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who originally founded Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Al-Jolani was previously a senior ISIS figure under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who financed him to establish Al-Nusra Front in Syria. Later, he pledged allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda and former deputy to Osama Bin Laden.
HTS and its affiliates, all of which are designated terrorist organizations by most countries and the United Nations Security Council, have spent 14 years systematically targeting Alawites, Christians, Druze, Shiites, Yazidis, Kurds, and anyone else who does not conform to their perverted ideology, not only in Syria but also in Iraq and Lebanon.
Unlike what they are trying to portray, their massacres did not begin on March 7th. HTS has been on a continuous killing spree, engaging in sectarian cleansing since launching their offensive from Idlib. In just the weeks leading up to the most recent mass killings, they carried out the Hafel Massacre in Homs, where over 50 Alawite civilians were slaughtered, and the Arzeh Massacre in Hama, where more than 10 Alawite civilians were publicly executed.
These massacres clearly demonstrated HTS’s genocidal intent, yet the European Union ignored them and instead eased pressure on these terrorists by lifting some of the sanctions.
HTS has not only been carrying out massacres; they have been reshaping Syria’s demographics and economy to permanently entrench their extremist rule. Their actions include forcing minorities out of their homes, halting salaries of government employees based on sectarian affiliation, seizing economic infrastructure from the coastal regions and transferring it to their strongholds in Idlib.
The goal is clear: to reshape Syrian society in favor of Islamist extremists by eliminating minorities and seizing economic assets.
This brutal policy of extermination is what led the people to fight back on March 7th.
The latest massacres have already claimed the lives of thousands of Alawite and Christian civilians, and the full extent of the atrocities will only become clear once international journalists and investigators are granted unrestricted access, without minders limiting their movements.
We have seen massacres targeting Alawite and Christian civilians all across the Coastal region, Homs and Hama, in the town of Al-Sanobar alone over 200 Alawite civilians, including women and children, were slaughtered. This is just one of many such examples. Similar massacres have occurred in several cities such as Latakia, Qardaha, Jableh, Tartous, Hama, and Homs, and in several towns and villages where entire families have been executed, their homes and land set ablaze.
This is the exact same tactic that ISIS and Al-Qaeda used in Iraq, where they systematically executed Yazidis, Christians, and Shiites, enslaved women, and carried out public executions. The difference now is that HTS is being treated as a legitimate government by some Western countries.
HTS had attempted to replicate these atrocities against the Druze in southern Syria, but they were swiftly warned by Israel which had already crossed the frontiers with its forces present nearby. Likewise, they sought to attack the Kurds in the northeast alongside Turkey, but were stopped by the U.S. military presence, which has trained and equipped Kurdish forces for many years.
Even worse, instead of reinstating sanctions after these massacres, as the EU originally promised under their “snapback sanctions” policy, they have done the opposite by rewarding HTS inviting them to a donors’ conference, giving them billions of Euros effectively legitimizing their crimes.
This sets an extremely dangerous precedent, sending a message to terrorist groups worldwide that if you kill enough people and seize enough land, the international community will eventually recognize and accept you. This is not just a betrayal of the Syrian people, but a direct threat to global security”.
In July 2024, a few months before the fall of Assad’s regime, Italy reopened its embassy in Damascus. Do you think the Vatican may have influenced this decision to guarantee protection for the Christian community?
“Italy’s decision to reopen its embassy in Damascus in July 2024, just months before the fall of Assad’s regime, was likely part of a broader diplomatic realignment rather than a result of Vatican influence. While the Vatican has always been deeply concerned about the fate of Christian communities in the Middle East, I do not believe it played a role in this particular decision. Historically, Christian minorities in Iraq and Syria were largely protected under the former authoritarian regimes, but as we have seen in Iraq, where the Christian population has dwindled from 1.2 million to just 200,000 following the fall of the Baathist dictatorship.
Italy was well aware of the dangers posed by Islamist extremists, particularly the risk they pose to Europe and Italy itself. It is likely that reopening the embassy was part of an effort to bring Assad’s regime back into the fold, lift sanctions, and provide financial support to prevent a total collapse. The regime had resorted to manufacturing and trafficking Captagon, a drug that flooded the Middle East and beyond. Even an Italian port was among those where shipments were seized back in 2020, underscoring the urgency for Italy to re-engage with Syria. The goal was likely to ensure that Islamist groups did not take full control of Syria, a scenario that posed an even greater risk to European security.
I recall that Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, when he was Vice President of the European Parliament, was highly aware of the dangers of Islamic extremism. He personally invited me to speak at a seminar organized by the European research center European Ideas Network, which focused on The European Union’s Response to International Terrorism, a session he chaired. This demonstrates that key Italian policymakers have long been concerned about the issue.
However, the new HTS regime has no interest in religious tolerance or minority rights. Al-Jolani, HTS’s leader, has a well-documented history of targeting minorities. When he was with ISIS, he presented a plan to his former leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, outlining how to rid the region from its minorities.
HTS has committed brutal atrocities, including crucifying Christians, selling Druze women as slaves, and executing people accused of blasphemy. The idea that this group will “protect” Christian communities is absurd. The only thing they are doing is practicing Taqiyah, which is hiding their true intentions until they gain full diplomatic recognition, legitimacy, and financial support. Once they secure this backing, they will recruit more local and foreign jihadists, train and arm them, and consolidate their control. At that point, there will be little that Europe can do.
Right now, the EU is already bending over backward to appease this Islamist extremist regime, fearing even the current number of foreign jihadists currently in Syria. But what happens when Al-Jolani starts inviting tens or even hundreds of thousands more to join from across the world? The warning signs are clear.
Al-Jolani has never hidden his true ambitions. In his first interview with Al Jazeera, he openly stated that he wants an Islamic Caliphate without borders across the Middle East and North Africa, governed by Sharia law, and described current Arab leaders as cowards who only care about protecting their thrones.
I strongly believe that the Vatican should take a firm stand against this Islamist extremist regime, which does not represent the peaceful values of Islam. It should not remain silent while an Al-Qaeda-linked government takes control of Syria under the pretense of being a “moderate” force. The consequences for Syria’s Christians and other minorities will be devastating”.
In your opinion, what are Al-Jolani’s (former Al-Qaeda member) intentions regarding the 55,000 Daesh prisoners?
“Al-Jolani is not a former Al-Qaeda member; he remains a jihadist who continues to adhere to the same extremist ideology. He was a senior figure in ISIS in Iraq and later founded Jabhat al-Nusra, which was Al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria. He initially operated under the leadership of ISIS’s Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi before breaking away and pledging allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the former deputy of Osama bin Laden and then leader of Al-Qaeda. Now, he controls thousands of Daesh prisoners, and the question is: What will he do with them?
The answer is simple: he will use them as leverage to blackmail Europe, just as Erdogan used the refugee crisis. And this strategy is already showing results.
Also, HTS has a long history of absorbing jihadists from various extremist groups, including ISIS. Many of these prisoners will not remain in detention for long. Some will be integrated into HTS’s military forces, others will be used for external operations, and many will eventually be smuggled out of Syria into conflict zones such as Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and even Europe.
And as I said earlier, HTS has also been issuing Syrian passports and identity documents printed in Turkey, making it easier for foreign jihadists to move freely and pose a direct security threat beyond the region, especially to Europe and the West.
This reflects his broader strategy of transforming Syria into a hub for international jihadists.
In short, HTS is sitting on a massive reserve army of extremists, and this is precisely why European governments are in total panic and doing all they can to please them. While some countries are worried about HTS sending them back their jihadis, others hope that normalizing relations with HTS might provide a pretext for deporting Syrian refugees, believing that some level of “stability” in Syria would justify sending them back.
However, history has shown that appeasing Islamist extremists does not lead to stability, it only strengthens their position. Instead of legitimizing HTS through diplomatic overtures and funding, the EU should be working with the US and other allies to eliminate this terrorist threat before it grows even more dangerous”.
What’s your view on the Kurdish question?
“The Kurdish issue in Syria is deeply intertwined with regional and international power struggles. The Greater Kurdistan project, envisioned as part of what is known as the “New Middle East,” seeks to establish an independent Kurdish state by incorporating land from Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria—uniting around 40 million people. Strategically, this project has been seen as a way to counter Iran’s expansionist ambitions westward toward the Mediterranean and Turkey’s neo-Ottoman aspirations, which extend from Mauritania to Western China. Iran relies mainly on Shia Arabs to exert influence and achieve it, while Turkey leverages Sunni Arabs and non-Arabs, including Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Western China.
However, the creation of a Greater Kurdistan faces direct opposition from all four neighboring states, which would never accept the loss of their territorial integrity. The Kurds will never be able to achieve full independence without sustained U.S. military support, as they are surrounded by hostile powers. Their best chance at autonomy depends on a continued American presence. However, uncertainty over Washington’s long-term commitment has left Kurdish leadership in a precarious position. There is a constant fear that, at any moment, the U.S. might abandon them, leaving them vulnerable to attacks from multiple fronts.
Turkey considers all Kurdish factions a direct national security threat and has actively worked to undermine them. It has used HTS and other Islamist militant groups to destabilize Kurdish-held areas, ensuring that Kurdish forces remain under siege. This has resulted in ongoing clashes, with Kurdish regions coming under attack from Turkey, HTS, and remnants of ISIS.
Neither Turkey nor its HTS proxies will tolerate a Kurdish autonomous region in Syria, as such a development would embolden Kurdish separatist movements within Turkey itself. If HTS solidifies its control over Syria, it is only a matter of time before it shifts its focus toward dismantling Kurdish forces in the northeast. The only factor currently preventing an all-out assault is Turkey’s strategic calculations regarding when and how to act, given the ongoing presence of U.S. troops in Kurdish-held areas.
At present, the U.S. has been pressuring the Kurds to engage in talks with HTS, which recently led to the signing of an agreement that formally integrates Kurdish security and military forces into the new Islamist regime. This move is widely seen as part of Pentagon contingency plans in case President Trump follows through on his previously stated desire to withdraw all American forces from conflict zones.
However, recent developments have raised serious concerns among the Kurds. The new HTS constitution is deeply authoritarian, Islamist, sectarian, and exclusionary. Having already witnessed massacres, religious persecution, and sectarian cleansing in the coastal region, Homs, and Hama, the Kurds understand that they could be the next target. While their agreement with HTS might buy them time, in the long term, they remain at serious risk of being overrun. Without strong international guarantees, Kurdish communities could face mass displacement or even ethnic cleansing”.
In your opinion, what’s Bashar al-Assad’s stance towards Syria’s new regime?
“Bashar al-Assad’s stance towards Syria’s new regime is largely irrelevant now, and I actually think he no longer cares. The situation Syria faces today is a direct result of his own decisions. He had multiple opportunities to transition towards a genuine representative democracy peacefully, but he refused. His father had secured strong relationships with the U.S., U.K., France, and the broader Western and Arab world, and Bashar was expected to continue that path. His father had also initiated the peace process with Israel and was close to signing an agreement until the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. However, instead of maintaining these ties, Bashar turned against the West, despite being given legitimacy at his father’s funeral, when world leaders extended their support to him.
Rather than reforming Syria and opening up politically, he chose to deepen his alliance with Iran and allowed extremist groups like Hamas and others to establish a presence in Damascus. He actively facilitated the movement of jihadists into Iraq to fight U.S. forces. To accommodate these groups, he permitted the rise of Islamist extremist ideology in Syria, backed by Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. Over time, Turkey and Qatar pressured him to include the Muslim Brotherhood in his government, but he resisted, further isolating himself.
His abrupt departure has now left his supporters, particularly the Alawite community, feeling completely betrayed. Many of them fought and died for him, believing he would remain to the end. Instead, they see him as a coward who fled upon Moscow’s orders.
His exit was carefully orchestrated by Russia. A few days before HTS launched its offensive toward Aleppo, he was summoned to Moscow. At the time, his military had been preparing, with Russian support, to launch an assault on Idlib. However, upon his arrival, Putin didn’t meet with him for the first couple of days. Then, on the third day, as HTS advanced, Putin met Bashar for an hour alone and informed that the decision had been made for him to leave. He was ordered to return to Damascus and instruct a gradual withdrawal of all government forces without making any public statements. Meanwhile, Russia had already been in direct contact with high-ranking Syrian military officers, preparing their evacuation. By the time the soldiers in the field realized what was happening, their commanding officers had already been flown to Moscow and Benghazi, leaving them leaderless.
Russia and Iran had already determined that Bashar was no longer useful. He had begun to turn on Iran during the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts, and Tehran knew that if the U.S. lifted sanctions on Syria on December 20, 2024, it would be formally pushed out of the country. Russia, on the other hand, understood that its long-term presence in Syria depended on maintaining control over the coastal region, where its bases in Hmeimim and Tartus are located. While Russia was seen as a protector in that area, most other regions of Syria viewed it as the force that had prolonged the regime’s survival. If sanctions were lifted, Russia would lose significant leverage over Bashar and potentially even over Turkey where Erdogan could lose power in the next elections.
Putin had also invested heavily in his relationship with Erdogan. After the failed coup in Turkey, Erdogan blamed the U.S. and grew closer to Russia. With Turkey being NATO’s second-largest army and a crucial energy hub for Russian gas exports, Putin was determined to keep Erdogan on his side and was able to side Turkey during the Ukraine war. Before Turkey’s elections, he urged Bashar to negotiate with Erdogan, emphasizing that Erdogan needed a political victory at home to facilitate the return of 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan also wanted to revive the Adana Agreement with Syria. He wanted both armies to pressure the Kurds back under regime control. This would have pleased Russia, Iran, and Iraq, while also laying the groundwork for U.S. withdrawal from Syria. However, Bashar rejected the proposal, saying he preferred to wait for Turkey’s opposition to win, as they had not directly supported the jihadist groups fighting in Syria. Putin was furious at this refusal, seeing it as a sign of disloyalty.
Russia also calculated that by removing Bashar, it could use the resulting chaos to its advantage. Knowing that the incoming Trump administration would prioritize ending the war in Ukraine and reducing U.S. military engagement abroad, Russia sought to position itself as the stabilizing force in the coastal region. By taking 3,000 high-ranking Syrian officers to Moscow and Benghazi, Russia retained the option of redeploying them under its command. This allowed Putin to present a narrative in future negotiations, arguing that Russia could restore order in the costal region, protecting the Alawites and Christians, where Moscow could claim a role in “protecting minorities.” Meanwhile, Turkey would be granted influence over HTS-controlled regions, and the Kurds would be pressured to return under Islamist rule, effectively neutralizing the Kurdish threat to Turkey.
Ultimately, Bashar was discarded by his own allies, who saw him as a liability. His supporters, especially the Alawite community, feel abandoned, as they believed he would fight to the end rather than leave them at the mercy of an Islamist extremist regime. His time is over, but Syria is now in even greater danger, with the country falling into the hands of a far more radical and dangerous regime”.
