Strategic Analysis of Illegal Immigration in the United States: Expectations for 2025 Under the Influence of the Trump Administration
Geopolitical Context
The year 2025 presents itself as a critical period of change in U.S. policy, particularly regarding the administration of Donald Trump and its approach to Latin America. The situation in countries such as Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba, Mexico, and Nicaragua intertwines with issues of immigration, drug trafficking, and natural disasters, creating a complex web that will require attention and flexible strategies.
Mass Immigration from Venezuela
The crisis in Venezuela has led to mass migration to the United States, with millions of Venezuelans seeking refuge from the economic and political collapse in their country. The Trump administration has faced this migratory wave with policies of mass deportations, generating collective hysteria among Venezuelans who fear being returned to a hostile environment. It is essential not to confuse this hysteria with the legitimate need of the United States to regain national security and control its borders. The results of the presidential elections in November clearly demonstrate voters’ concerns about immigration and border security.The only way the Trump administration can find a more viable solution is by seeking the ousting of the dictatorial regime of Nicolás Maduro. This could not only alleviate migratory pressure but also allow Venezuelans to return to a country where they can rebuild their lives in a democratic and stable environment. The signing of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and the concept of Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) have been important steps, but the long-term focus must be on restoring democracy in Venezuela.
The Immigration Crisis in the Caribbean
In addition to Venezuelans, migration from Haiti and Cuba has also increased. The crisis in Haiti, characterized by political instability and natural disasters, has forced many to seek a better life in the United States. Meanwhile, the situation in Cuba remains volatile, with a regime that restricts freedoms and growing discontent among the population. This convergence of humanitarian crises will be at the center of Trump’s political agenda in 2025.
The Effect of Migrant Caravans
The migrant caravans heading to the U.S. border were a social weapon designed to have a devastating effect by liberal media against the Trump administration from 2016 to 2020. Right- leaning media took advantage of showing images of detention centers for illegal immigrants as if they were cages for wild animals. The reality was that these detention centers were the same ones implemented and used during the administration of former President Barack Obama, known as the “deporter in chief.” According to government estimates, Obama deported more than 5 million immigrants from the United States. The truth is that the migrant caravans were effectively used as a weapon against the Trump administration, which was accused of human rights violations due to its zero-tolerance policy. The comprehensive protection of a country focuses on its sovereignty, which is based on the protection of its citizens and borders. The issues of illegal immigration and border security during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections were critical topics relevant to Trump’s reelection, in contrast to the right-wing policy of open borders. It is anticipated that caravans will be used in 2025 against the Trump administration to portray its immigration policy as repressive and a violation of universal human rights.
Challenges in Deportation Policy
Trump’s mass deportation policy has been a controversial topic, generating both support and opposition. The administration will need to find a balance between national security and humanitarian needs. The pressure on the asylum infrastructure in the United States will intensify as more people from these countries attempt to cross the border. It is crucial to recognize that the pursuit of regaining national security should not be perceived merely as a response to public hysteria but as a necessary strategy to protect the interests of the United States. Moreover, it is imperative to establish a more orderly policy regarding immigration and borders. This would include a more systematic approach that combines security measures withinternational cooperation initiatives to address the underlying causes of migration, such as violence, poverty, and lack of opportunities in the countries of origin.
The Fallacy of Generalization About Immigrants
A commonly used argument is that immigrants are essential to solving economic problems in the United States, such as working in the fields as “braceros” to keep the costs of fruits and vegetables low. However, this generalization is a fallacy. The reality is that many of these immigrants do not come to work in the fields; rather, they primarily seek assistance from federal and state governments. This phenomenon may result from the difficult conditions in their countries of origin, as well as the search for safety and stability in the United States. Reducing the impact of immigrants solely to low-wage agricultural jobs ignores their contributions in other sectors and the complexity of the U.S. economy. Many immigrants arrive with the hope of accessing social services and opportunities that will allow them to improve their quality of life, posing an additional challenge for the administration in terms of resources and public policy.
Zero Tolerance
The designated border czar of the elected Trump administration, Tom Homan, maintains a firm stance on border security and the implementation of mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Homan also served as the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump’s first term. During a 2019 hearing of the House Oversight Committee, Homan defended the administration’s “Zero Tolerance” position. The policy articulated by Homan is based on the existing code in the United States regarding the entry of migrants.
Drug Trafficking
Drug trafficking remains a significant challenge, especially concerning Mexico and Nicaragua. The interconnection between organized crime and migration is evident; many people are forced to flee from violence and extortion. The reactivation of coca and cocaine production in Colombia has brought violence and corruption, leading to failed states like Ecuador and Haiti, which exemplify the lack of solutions to this problem.
Conclusion
In summary, 2025 will bring a series of complex challenges for the Trump administration regarding immigration and stability in Latin America. The need for innovative and humane policies will be essential to address the migratory crisis and its interrelation with drug trafficking and natural disasters. Assisting in removing the Maduro regime in Venezuela could be a crucial step toward a more sustainable and viable solution. At the same time, establishing a more orderly policy on immigration and borders will allow the United States to better manage thesechallenges, protecting both its national security and the human rights of those seeking a better future. The administration’s ability to navigate these issues, recognizing the diversity of motivations and needs of immigrants, will be crucial for the future of the region and U.S. domestic policy. Stabilizing the region and laying the groundwork for developing security and prosperity is essential to halt new mass migrations toward the U.S. northern border.
Credits:
– Article: “The Politics of Immigration in America” – The New York Times
– Report: “Migration and its Challenges” – Pew Research Center
– Analysis: “The Impact of Immigration Policies on US Society” – The Washington Post
– Report: “Venezuelan Migration Crisis: An In-Depth Look” – BBC News
– Study: “Narcotraffic and Its Effects on Migration” – Al Jazeera
By
William Acosta, NYPD, (Ret)
Jesús Daniel Romero, USN, (Ret)
