The situation in the Sahel, between coups and jihadist terrorism.
The situation in the Sahel doesn’t appear to be showing any sign of stablizing in the near future. Events that have occurred over recent weeks indicate that the stability of the region is not improving but deteriorating.
Over the last few years we have seen Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have coups that replaced what was Civilian led Democratic Governments with Military Juntas under the direction of junior grade officers. There was some thought that this move would lead to better results against the insurgencies raging in these countries. It didn’t.
These juntas determined that they needed new security partnerships. The former colonial power France and to an extent a major security partner the United States would be forced to deminish their presence in the Sahel. Where would these juntas turn towards for a new security partnership? That choice would be Russia. It is a relationship that continues to this very day.
How are things playing out? The situation is not good. The Jihadists are in control of wide areas of both Mali and Burkina Faso. There are reports of new attacks in the region on a daily basis. So why hasn’t the security climate improved? That is a great question. The Sahelian States and their Russian partners have a ready answer to that question. Their answer until earlier this summer was that it was the nefarious French that was sabotaging the mission so that they could return as conquering heroes.
In recent weeks the Juntas have found themselves a new entity to blame. Who are the juntas and the Russians blaming for the inability for these juntas and their Russian partners to deter these insurgencies? It should not come as much of a surprise to learn that France is not being blamed nor is the United States. The country that is being blamed for what is taking place is Ukraine.
What has led them to this conclusion? In July there was a battle in Mali near the Algerian border where dozeens of Malian Soldiers and fighters from the Russian Private Miltary Company (PMC) Wagner were killed. One of the points of contention was a reported photo which showed members of the attacking force holding a Ukranian Flag.
The Malian Government has taken an interesting step. In July the country approached the UN Security Council and asked the body to condemn Ukraine for their alleged support of the insurgent forces in the region. This raises some interesting questions.
First off has any proof been presented to the Security Council to validate these charges? We know that the catalyst for this action appears to be remarks made by a senior Ukranian Intelligence Officer claimed that the insurgents received “Necessary Information” from Ukraine to carry out the ambush that resulted in a two day battle.
Secondly why would Ukraine make such a lavish claim? There is an interesting way to look at this question. Since 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine the Government in Kyiv has sought any opportunity to troll Russia. So gloating over any defeat of Russian Forces anywhere in the world will see a reaction from Ukraine and even a case of telling the Russians that we assisted them as well.
Already both Mali and Niger have severed diplomatic relations with Ukraine. It was only a matter of time after both of these nations have voted against any Resolutions in the UN General Assembly that has criticized Russian Actions in Ukraine. Does this mean the Juntas are full fledged allies of Russia now? Probably. As tensions in the region grow specifically between Mali and both Ghana and Cote D’Ivorie and also between Niger and Benin more spotlights will be focused on the region as tensions grow.
A tantalizing thought could be that the Ukranian Offensive in Kursk is designed to force the Russian PMCs to withdraw from the region and return to Kursk to help repel the Ukranian incursion. Will this be successful is anyone’s guess.
Right now Ukraine is the villain of the month. There are signs that both Benin and Cote D’Ivorie may garner this status in the near future. But the juntas love their bogeymen don’t they
