Key Points:
1. The apparent diminution of intensity in China’s pretensions to attack Taiwan, moving from an extreme of imminent war, to apparent inactivity. This current situation indicates a plausible change in the Asian giant’s strategy.
2. China is steadily expanding its influence in the world, especially in areas with existing or apparent conflict beginnings.
3. This constant expansion of influence, especially in areas of broad Western dominance, creates detrimental counterparts for the West, especially the United States in its backyard, where China’s technological and military advance in recent years has significantly reduced the gap between the two powers, thus allowing economic and military intrusion into Latin America.
4. China’s gigantic technological-military advance allows the country greater autonomy in the military escalation it carries out at a global level together with the different actors that currently exist; USA, Russia and Europe.
Growth of the Chinese presence in Latin America:
5. China wants to position itself as a priority reference, as a supplier of weapons and tactical equipment to the different armies and police forces existing in Latin America.
6. Given the lack of concern of the United States in the advance of Chinese influence in Latin America (Latin America onwards), it has promoted the initiative to create several lines of action, the purpose of which is to position its military equipment in the army, police and private security forces existing in South American countries.
7. At present, there are no official bases or formal alliances with the LA countries, despite the clear increase in military relations together with the commercial presence, brought about by the gifts given on a regular basis, in order to bring closer the different security services existing in LA, where countries such as Peru (Armored Vehicles), Bolivia (Trucks and boats), Colombia (Military clothing), Dominican Republic (Motorcycles and cars), Costa Rica (Dual-use trucks), have benefited from China’s generosity.
8. Despite the major drawbacks that constantly arise with the Chinese equipment received:
a. Poorly translated manuals.
b. Non-existent translation.
c. Poor ammo quality.
d. Vehicles with structural “vibration” failures.
The change in trend of the AL governments “Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia” is significant; from massive purchases from Russia to Chinese military equipment, highlighting Hongung K-8W fighters, military radars, armored vehicles, C-802 anti-tank
missiles, helicopters, etc.”
9. To a limited extent, several governments — Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Brazil — opposed to U.S. policies in Latin America have begun buying Chinese weapons.
10. The constant detection of Chinese military presence in the region, with military operations in Chile and Brazil, along with relevant visits such as those of Commissioner Yuan Huazhai to Brazil in 2023 demonstrate the increase in Chinese influence in the region.
11. In order to strengthen relations and influence in the region, ensuring fidelity in the purchase of weapons and military equipment, China regularly organizes forums related to global security, police officer training and specialized courses for naval forces, mostly held at the Chang Ping National Defense University in Beijing.
Chinese interference in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:
12. China has become the top importer of essential technology to Russia, with an increase of $200 billion over the past five years.
13. The flow of drones and computer chips are sent along existing trade routes in Central Asia, with those located through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan being key in the trafficking of Western technology – essential in the Russian weaponry used in Ukraine.
14. The group benefits from the use of Russian military bases, transports and medical services in its operations.
15. In 2023, Chinese exports to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan amounted to $1.3 billion, up 64% from 2022.
16. Despite Russia’s alternative trade routes – the United Arab Emirates and Turkey – supplying Russia on a smaller scale.
17. High-ranking officials in Europe have shown great concern, formalizing and demanding on several occasions the cessation of the shipment of dual-use goods and advanced technology, exported by China to Russia through Asian routes, especially those manufactured by American companies.
Trade routes to Russia
Prepared by the author
Technological Advancements:
18. The current situation of technological and trade war between China and the US has vetoed the Asian giant from accessing certain essential materials, components and technologies, affecting the production of semiconductors and consequent dependence on foreign countries.
19. Recently, the Chinese industry – Chang Shen Technology Company and Shen Zen University – have discovered how to mass-produce T-1000 carbon fiber, with high- quality performance, which is key for the military and energy industry. Its services will reinforce the armament and energy elements of the army and energy companies.
20. The company has estimated the production of 1700 tons of fiber per year, in the new production line based in Hebei province.
21. Considered one of the most resistant materials and suitable to withstand great mechanical stress, this type of fiber is used in hydrogen and wind power facilities, missiles, satellites, battle stations, military industry and warships – used in the hull, they can absorb electromagnetic waves, impacts and scattering of radar waves.
Conclusions:
The current global geostrategic drift indicates isolated and independent actions ─general perception─ of China in its expansionist pretensions in the medium term, where the creation of conflicts, political and social instability, will create distrust in the zones of influence of the US and its European allies, whose main purpose will be to disperse military capabilities on a single front ─defense of Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan Japan, the Philippines, etc. ─ with actions that lead to destabilization, alliances and loss of credibility towards the West, will lead in the medium term, hypothetical futures of confrontations in Latin America, Europe and countries related to Western policy, the possible result of which will be the dispersion of military, technological and economic forces on innumerable fronts, with a probable result of weakened influence and sterile defensive capacity in the face of Chinese expansion actions, the most likely result will be the annexation of Taiwan and subsequent domination of the South China Sea and zones of influence.
